TNI ELECTION DESK, Jaipur: In a sudden turn of events in the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged victorious, signaling a shift in the political landscape of the state. The overarching question that loomed over the electoral battleground was whether Rajasthan would witness a change in government or stick to traditional customs, encapsulated by the phrase “badlega raj ya rivaaz.”
As the counting progressed, the BJP established a formidable lead, securing a significant number of seats and reinforcing the trend of the state voting out incumbents every five years. The debate swiftly shifted from the possibility of a change in government to speculations about the next chief minister.
The electoral journey leading up to this outcome was marked by intense campaigning and strategic maneuvering. The anti-incumbency sentiments that typically characterize Rajasthan’s assembly polls were mitigated to some extent by the social security initiatives of the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government. Schemes such as Chiranjeevi, a state-sponsored health insurance plan, and other welfare measures endeared Gehlot to a considerable section of the electorate.
However, the Congress campaign faced challenges, with the BJP strategically highlighting perceived failures in infrastructure development, employment, and law and order. The BJP leveraged its Hindutva and anti-corruption rhetoric, targeting Gehlot for his alleged lapses in addressing crimes against women and paper leaks in government job entrance exams.
Both major parties grappled with internal organizational issues. The BJP struggled to present a unified front due to conflicts within its leadership, notably between the Modi-Shah duo and former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. The Congress, on the other hand, dealt with internal strife between Gehlot and prominent party leader Sachin Pilot, despite a last-minute truce engineered by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge.
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Adding complexity to the electoral landscape were third front contenders led by Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Aazad’s Azad Samaj Party. The presence of the Bharat Adivasi Party further fragmented the political scene, potentially influencing outcomes in Adivasi-dominated regions.
Political observers described the elections as not just one but 200 separate battles, emphasizing localized contests in each of the 200 seats. The absence of a clear wave favoring any party, coupled with Gehlot’s popularity and the lack of a BJP chief ministerial face, raised the possibility of a hung assembly.
Amidst the key results, attention is focused on key regions such as Marwar, Shekhawati, Dhundar, Hadouti, and Mewar. Historical data indicates the BJP’s advantage in Rajasthan, with a more resilient support base, even in defeat. The Congress, while narrowing the gap, faces challenges in terms of vote shares, usually hovering below the BJP’s.
Regardless of the final outcome, Ashok Gehlot’s ability to transform the elections into a closely contested battle has left a lasting impact. His long-term welfare policies are poised to become a template for the Congress as it looks ahead to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A victory for Gehlot would not only mark a turning point in Rajasthan but also defy historical precedents and structural challenges faced by his party.
The election results will undoubtedly shape the political landscape of Rajasthan, determining the state’s governance for the next five years.
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