C Voter Opinion Poll: BJP Gaining, Congress Sinking

The TIMES Now-India TV-C Voter opinion poll has come up with interesting results for all political parties across India in the run up to 2014 polls. The poll has predicted a complete rout for the Congress-led UPA, which might end up with 117 against 259 in 2009. The Congress Party, which won 206 seats in 2009, will be down to 102 in 2014, while the BJP will increase its tally to 162 from 116 in 2009. The NDA is projected to win 186 seats, which is still 86 short of the magic figure of 272 required to form the government at the Centre.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may get 35% of the total votes, while the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) may end up with just 27%. The regional parties will share 38% of the total votes. According to the survey, AIADMK, Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Left Front, Trinamool Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) may play the key role in the government formation at the centre.

The UPA includes the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Muslim League, National Conference and Kerala Congress (Mani). The NDA comprised of BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, RPI (Athawale), Nationalist People’s Party of Meghalaya and Haryana Janhit Congress.

If we believe the survey, the Left Front may win 32 seats, while the BSP may win 31 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK may win 28 seats. The Samajwadi Party could win 25 seats, followed by Trinamool Congress (23), RJD (14), YSR Congress (13), TRS (13) and BJD (12). The JD(U) may suffer heavy losses in Bihar by winning just nine seats as against 20 in 2009 when it had alliance with the BJP. The ‘Others’ will get around 240 seats, which will determine the fate of the next government.

Political pundits have expressed over the projections for Uttar Pradesh, the BJP may win a few more (8-10) seats in the state, while the BSP may not win 31 seats at all, which has been predicted here. In Odisha, the BJD may still win 14-15 seats (not 12), while the BJP is sitting strong in Sundargarh, thanks to Dilip Ray’s relentless efforts. In Andhra Pradesh too, BJP may still win 1-2 seats, while the party could win 2-4 seats in Tamil Nadu. Narendra Modi has begun his campaign only recently. He may be able to increase the party’s tally by another 20-30 seats when he starts the whirlwind tour of India.

State-wide Projections of Seats:

• Andhra Pradesh: Total 42, YSR Cong 13, TRS 13, Congress 7, TDP 8, MIM 1.
• Arunachal Pradesh: Total 2, Congress 1, BJP 1.
• Assam: Total 14, Congress 9, BJP 3, AUDF 1, Bodoland People’s Front 1.
• Bihar: Total 40: JD(U) 9, BJP 14, RJD 14, LJP 1, Congress 1, Independent 1.
• Chhattisgarh: Total 11 : BJP 8, Congress 3.
• Goa : Total 2,  BJP 1, Congress 1.
• Gujarat: Total 26, BJP 22, Congress 4.
• Haryana: Total 10 : Congress 5, BJP 4, INLD 1.
• Himachal Pradesh: Total 4 : BJP 3, Congress 1.
• Jammu & Kashmir: Total 6: NC 2, Congress 1, BJP 1, PDP 1, Ind 1.
• Jharkhand: Total 14: BJP 6, JMM 2, JVM 3, Congress 1, Ind 2.
• Karnataka: Total 28: Congress 13, BJP 12, JD(S) 3.
• Kerala: Total 20: Left Front 13, Congress 4, IUML 2, Kerala Congress(Mani) 1.
• Madhya Pradesh: Total 29:  BJP 23, Congress 6.
• Maharashtra: Total 48:  Congress 11, Shiv Sena 14, BJP 13, NCP 6, RPI(Athavale) 2, MNS 2.
• Manipur: Total seats 2: Congress 2.
• Meghalaya: Total seats 2: Congress 1, Nationalist People’s Party 1.
• Mizoram: Total seat 1: Independent/Others 1.
• Nagaland: Total seat 1: Nagaland People’s Front 1.
• Odisha: Total seats 21, Biju Janata Dal 12, Congress 9.
• Punjab: Total seats 13, Congress 4, Akali Dal 7, BJP 2.
• Rajasthan: Total seats: 25, BJP 19, Congress 5, Ind 1.
• Sikkim: Total seat 1, Sikkim Democratic Front 1.
• Tamil Nadu: Total seats 39, AIADMK 28, DMK 5, Congress 1, CPI 1, MDMK 1, DMDK 2, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi 1.
• Tripura: Total seats 2: CPI (M) 2.
• Uttar Pradesh: Total seats 80, Samajwadi Party 25, BSP 31, BJP 17, Congress 5, RLD 2.
• Uttarakhand: Total seats 5, BJP 5.
• West Bengal: Total seats 42, Trinamool Congress 23, Left Front 16, Congress 3.
• Delhi: Total seats 7, BJP 4, Congress 3.
• Union Territories: Total 6,  BJP 4, Congress 1, Ind/Others 1.