TNI Bureau: The latest exit poll conducted by Axis My India for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 projects a narrow edge for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), forecasting it to secure between 121 and 141 seats in the 243-member assembly.
However, in a surprising twist, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a key NDA constituent, is expected to finish third in the overall seat tally behind its ally, the Janata Dal (United), and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB).
According to the survey, JD(U) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is projected to win 56–62 seats, slightly ahead of BJP, which is predicted to bag 50–56 seats.
The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) may add 11–16 seats, while smaller allies like HAM(S) and RLM could together contribute up to 7 seats. The NDA’s combined vote share stands at 43%, with a margin of error of plus or minus two percent.
The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), comprising RJD, Congress, CPI(ML)L, CPI, and others, is forecasted to win 98–118 seats, gaining a 41% vote share. The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is expected to emerge as the single largest party with 67–76 seats, followed by Congress with 17–21 seats and CPI(ML)L with about 10–14 seats.
The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor is likely to make a modest entry into the assembly with 0–2 seats, while AIMIM may also secure up to 2 seats, maintaining a 1% vote share. Other smaller parties and independents together are projected to win 1–5 seats, collectively drawing about 11% of the votes.
If the projections hold, the NDA will retain power, though with reduced dominance, and internal seat dynamics may prompt a realignment of leadership within the alliance.
Political analysts suggest that while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) seems to have regained ground, the BJP’s slide to third position marks a significant shift in Bihar’s political landscape, signaling changing voter preferences within the ruling coalition.
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