Political Polarisation – Disastrous for Regional Parties
After the CWG, 2G and Coalgate, the nation debated about rising corruption. After the high inflation and price rise, people started thinking about declining Economy. But, today, after the elevation of Narendra Modi at the national level, everyone talks about polarisation. The Congress is happy and so is the BJP. Polarisation suits both parties after all!
Even if Modi talks about development and corruption, the Congress, JD(U), Left and other parties are not willing to listen. They want this election to be fought on the issue of communalism vs secularism. They think that would make Modi nervous and isolated in the political arena, negating the BJP’s advantage. Will that happen? Probably not.
The more the Modi-bashing will gain momentum, people will get polarised in his favour. At the same time, there will be another polarisation among his opponents. This battle will definitely benefit both the Congress and BJP, while causing trouble to other regional parties, who hardly understand the game plan. Some analysts have pointed out that if polls are held today on the basis of development and governance, Congress may end up at just 100 or less seats. But, if there is a strong polarisation of votes in the majority and minority communities because of Modi, the party may expect to win at least 140-odd seats.
While this is really interesting, the BJP has nothing to lose. It may win 160-170 seats on development plan. But, the communal vs secular debate may actually help the saffron party win around 190-200 seats or even more. The entire calculation is based on the opinion polls and statements given by political pundits and analysts over the last couple of months.
If both Congress and BJP gain because of this polarisation of Indian politics, the losers will be Samajwadi Party (Uttar Pradesh), BSP (Uttar Pradesh), JD(U) [Bihar], Trinamool Congress (West Bengal), BJD (Odisha), TDP (Andhra Pradesh) and NCP (Maharashtra). And, in the end, most political parties will prefer to ally with the Congress to keep Modi out of power. So, the Congress may have the last laugh to retain power for the third successive term. The BJP will increase its vote bank and emerge as a strong opposition as the single largest party. But, the regional parties will lose badly if they fall into this Congress-BJP trap.